Thursday, March 1, 2012

Short sales rising - 24% of Q4 2011 sales were foreclosures

Short sales rising - 24% of Q4 2011 sales were foreclosures

During the three months that ended December 31, homes that were
either bank-owned or going through the foreclosure process
accounted for 24% of all home sales, up from 20% in the previous
quarter and down only slightly from a year earlier when
foreclosures accounted for 26% of sales, RealtyTrac said.  In
total, 204,080 distressed properties were purchased during the
fourth quarter, down 2% from the year-ago quarter. For all of
2011, foreclosure-related sales were down 2% year-over year to
907,138, accounting for 23% of all home sales.  "Sales of
foreclosures in the fourth quarter continued to be slowed by
questions surrounding proper foreclosure paperwork and
procedures," said Brandon Moore, chief executive officer of
RealtyTrac, referring to the delays cause by the robo-signing
scandal that broke in late 2010. "Even so, foreclosures accounted
for nearly one in every four sales during the quarter and for the
entire year."  "We expect to see foreclosure-related sales
increase in 2012, particularly pre-foreclosure sales, as lenders
start to more aggressively dispose of distressed assets held up
by the mortgage servicing gridlock over the past 18 months," said
Brandon Moore, CEO of RealtyTrac.

Short sales are starting to become the preferred method for banks
to dispose of properties in default. In short sales, borrowers
who owe more on their mortgages than their homes are worth agree
with their bank to sell their homes at the lower market value. In
return, the bank agrees to absorb the loss.  During the last
quarter of 2011, there were more than 88,000 short sales, up 15%
compared with a year earlier, according to RealtyTrac. Short
sales comprised 10% of all homes sold during the quarter.
Meanwhile, sales of bank-owned homes fell 12% year-over-year to
116,000, comprising 13% of all sales during the quarter.  "That
trend will likely show up in more local markets in 2012 as
lenders recognize short sales as a better option for many of
their non-performing loans," said Moore. Short sales have become
a more attractive option since all parties agree on the terms,
leading to fewer legal issues, said Daren Blomquist, RealtyTrac's
director of marketing.  They also offer better returns. During
the quarter, the average short sale sold for $184,221, while the
average foreclosure sold for $149,686. And banks typically don't
have to spend a mint maintaining a short sale home like they do a
foreclosure, where they have to pay more in legal fees, property
taxes, maintenance and insurance, said Blomquist.

Short sale deals also get completed more quickly. During the
fourth quarter, it took an average of 308 days, to complete a
short sale. Foreclosures, meanwhile, can take years to complete.
Quicker approvals mean fewer buyers get discouraged and withdraw
their offers. Blomquist said some banks even pre-approve prices
so deals close very fast.  Short sales already outnumber REO
sales in several "bellwether markets," including Los Angeles and
Phoenix, where, in both cities, they exceeded 20% of all sales.
Some lenders have even incentivized short sales in Florida and
other hard-hit foreclosure states. They offer large cash rewards
-- as much as $35,000 -- to delinquent borrowers in return for
co-operating on these transactions.  Distressed properties
continue to make up a large portion of the sales inventory in
many housing markets. In Nevada, they accounted for 56% of all
sales during the quarter, the highest percentage of any state.
California foreclosure-related sales claimed a 43% share, Georgia
39%, Arizona 38% and Michigan 33%.

Jobless claims steady

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell 2,000 to a
seasonally adjusted 351,000, the Labor Department said. The prior
week's figure was revised up to 353,000 from the previously
reported 351,000.  Claims have been hovering near four-year lows
over the last few weeks. Economists polled by Reuters had
forecast claims unchanged at 351,000 last week.  The four-week
moving average for new claims, considered a better measure of
labor market trends, dropped 5,500 to 354,000 — the lowest
level since March 2008.  New applications for jobless benefits
have declined through much of February, raising hopes for a third
straight month of solid employment gains.  Nonfarm employment
likely increased 200,000 last month, according to a Reuters
survey, after rising 243,000 in January. The unemployment rate is
seen holding at a three-year low of 8.3% in February.  The
government will release February's employment report on March 9.
While the labor market is gaining momentum, the level of
employment is still 5.82 million from its prerecession level.

Olick - foreclosures ramp up

"Despite huge delays in foreclosure processing last year,
following the so-called 'robo-signing' paperwork scandal, sales
of foreclosed properties still managed to account for nearly one
in four home sales in the fourth quarter of 2011, up from one in
five in the previous quarter.  In all of 2011, just over 907,000
homes in the foreclosure process or repossessed by lenders were
sold to third parties, according to a new report by RealtyTrac.
'We expect to see foreclosure-related sales increase in 2012,
particularly pre-foreclosure sales, as lenders start to more
aggressively dispose of distressed assets held up by the mortgage
servicing gridlock over the past 18 months,' said RealtyTrac CEO
Brandon Moore in a press release.

A pilot program by the regulator of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to
sell 2500 foreclosures on their books in bulk to investors
already has investors rushing to get in. Investor interest has
already been heating up lately, with some Realtors reporting
bidding wars in parts of California and Nevada, where supply fell
due to bank delays. But it's not just bank-owned (REO)
properties.  'We continued to see a shift toward pre-foreclosure
sales, or short sales, and away from REO sales in the fourth
quarter,' Moore continued. 'Nationally, pre-foreclosure sales
increased 15% from a year ago while REO sales decreased 12%.
Pre-foreclosure sales outnumbered REO sales in several bellwether
markets, including Los Angeles, Miami and Phoenix, where REO
sales had outnumbered pre-foreclosure sales a year ago.'

New streamlined programs and government incentives are helping,
as lenders begin to see short sales (selling the home for less
than the value of the mortgage) as a less costly alternative to
foreclosure. While pre-foreclosure sales are up overall, they are
way up in some of the hardest hit states, like Michigan (up
103%), Georgia (up 59%) and Arizona (up 48%).  The average price
of a pre-foreclosure home in the fourth quarter of 2011 was 21%
below that of a non-foreclosure home, according to RealtyTrac.
The average discount on an REO property (foreclosure sale) was
36%.  Foreclosures, however, still take about half as long to
sell, as the short sale process is lengthy at an average 318 days
to complete.  California, Florida, Arizona and Nevada accounted
for more than half of all distressed sales in 2011, but their
numbers are coming down, while other states like Georgia,
Minnesota and Washington are seeing those sales increase. There
is also a huge discrepancy between states that require a judge in
the foreclosure process and states that do not.  Judicial states,
like New Jersey, are still seeing huge backlogs due to the
robo-signing scandal, even as banks reached a $26 billion
settlement with state and federal governments. It takes more than
900 days on average to foreclose on a New Jersey home.

As banks now work more quickly through more than 4 million
delinquent loans and 2 million more in the foreclosure process,
foreclosure sales are likely to increase through 2012.  While the
government is offering new incentives for banks to modify loans,
many mortgages simply can't be saved. Home prices continue to
fall nationally, putting more borrowers in a negative equity
position, and thereby at a higher risk of default. While the
economy is slowly improving, and jobs are coming back, analysts
say it's not enough to save the bulk of loans that are already in
trouble."

Economy "far from normal"

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke on Wednesday offered a
tempered view of the US economy, pouring cold water on the notion
that recent upbeat signs herald a stronger recovery.  Bernanke
told Congress that unless growth accelerated, the unacceptably
high US unemployment rate would not keep dropping. But he stopped
short of signaling further Fed bond buying, dashing the hopes of
some traders in financial markets who were betting on more
monetary stimulus.  "The job market is far from normal," Bernanke
said. "Continued improvement ... is likely to require stronger
growth in final demand and production."

The swift decline in the US unemployment rate in recent months,
to a three-year low of 8.3% in January from 9.1% in August, has
surprised economists both within and outside the Fed, given the
economy's relatively soft performance.  "The decline in the
unemployment rate over the past year has been somewhat more rapid
than might have been expected, given that the economy appears to
have been growing during that time frame at or below its
longer-term trend," Bernanke told the House of Representatives
Financial Services Committee.  While the tenor of Bernanke's
remarks was dovish, the lack of a direct allusion to the
possibility of a third round of so-called quantitative easing
undercut prices for US stocks and government bonds, and hit gold
prices hard. Gold slumped more than 4%, the biggest one-day drop
this year.  "Bernanke implied that the Fed was no closer to QE3
... Investors were disappointed," said Cary Leahey of Decision
Economics in New York.

Florida foreclosure streamlining closer to reality

Fourteen Democrats joined 80 Republicans in the Florida House of
Representatives on Wednesday to pass a bill aimed at streamlining
the foreclosure process.  The 94-17 bipartisan vote comes after
two months of protests from a committed group of activists, many
of them foreclosure defendants who say the bill limits their
ability to defend their cases.  For the bill to become law, the
Senate must pass its version by the end of session, March 9.
Supporters say the bill is necessary to put abandoned homes back
on the market and to speed up home foreclosures, which take
nearly two years on average to grind through the courts in
Florida.  They propose cutting the number of court hearings from
two to one and allowing any lien holder, including homeowners'
associations, to initiate the process. It also outlines steps for
determining if a house or condo unit is vacant, clearing the path
for a lender to foreclose.  Several Democrats said Rep. Kathleen
Passidomo, R-Naples, convinced them her bill actually protects
consumers. The passage was a major success for the first-term
Republican.  Passidomo worked to reduce the statute of
limitations on deficiency judgments from the current five years
to one. A deficiency judgment seeks payment from a borrower for
the outstanding mortgage balance over the value of the home.

Europe is a drag on the global economy

Prospects for a strong recovery in the global economy darkened
today as sputtering factory activity in Europe overshadowed more
upbeat data from Asia, at a time when central banks are running
out of policy options and reluctant to do more.  Factory activity
across Europe at best stagnated, and in Spain and Greece it
contracted sharply, according to the latest purchasing managers'
indexes. Similar reports showed China and India growing, but at a
more modest pace than in the recent past.  The data comes just a
day after the European Central Bank pumped 530 billion euros of
cash into the banking system, likely its last such salvo in a
battle to bring down yields on government bond and stave off
recession.  But despite another bailout for Greece and success in
lowering borrowing costs -- Spain sold 4.5 billion of government
bonds on Thursday at lower yields than previous sales -- Europe
is still casting a dark shadow over the world economy.

What is most troublesome is that several countries in the euro
zone periphery such as Greece, Spain, and to a lesser extent
Italy, are in recession, while the strongest economies - Germany
and France - are barely growing.  Markit's Eurozone Manufacturing
Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 49.0 last month from
January's 48.8, in line with a flash reading. But it has now been
below the 50 mark that divides growth from contraction since
July.  It now looks all but certain the 17-member euro zone is
stuck in a mild recession. Even Germany, a top world exporter of
manufactured goods, is struggling.  A Reuters poll suggested the
euro zone will remain in a mild recession until the second half
of this year.

Greece's factories are in freefall and its economic data point to
depression rather than recession.  Its ailing factory sector
shrank at the fastest pace in at least 13 years just as the
country is set to be hit by another wave of austerity cuts in
return for the latest bailout cash.  And in Spain, where the
government is struggling to slash its public deficit, factories
shed jobs at the fastest rate in more than two years, worsening
employment prospects in a country where already more than
one-in-five is out of work.  Unemployment in the bloc rose to a
euro-era high of 10.7% in January, official data showed earlier
on Thursday.  The picture was slightly better in Britain. But its
manufacturing sector grew at a slower pace than expected in
February, further evidence that the economy is vulnerable,
particularly to any more trouble in the euro zone, its main
trading partner.  Yet like the ECB, which looks set to leave
policy on hold, Bank of England Governor Mervyn King indicated on
Wednesday that more stimulus in the form of additional government
bond purchases was no certainty.

$4.9 billion new mortgage business in January

Private mortgage insurers represented by the Mortgage Insurance
Companies of America wrote $4.9 billion in new business in
January, down 23% from $6.4 billion the same month a year ago.
In December, MICA wrote $5.8 billion in new business.  MICA
reported its member companies - including Genworth, Mortgage
Guaranty Insurance Corp., Radian Guaranty and Republic Mortgage
Insurance Co. - had $399 billion in primary insurance in force in
January. That is down 47% from nearly $748 billion in January
2011.  Many members of the organization recently posted increased
earnings in 2011.  Radian earned $302.2 million in 2011, up from
a loss of $1.8 billion a year earlier. The company said the
credit quality on insured loans improved in the fourth quarter.


Genworth reported income of $107 million in the fourth quarter,
compared to a net loss of $161 million in the same period in
2010, driven in part by mortgage insurance results.  Defaults
outpaced loan cures in January with MICA reporting that insurers
under its umbrella had 29,348 loan defaults insured by the
industry, down 55% from 64,687 the same month a year ago. The
organization reported 23,728 cures, down 53% from 50,820 a year
ago.  About 21,904 borrowers used private mortgage insurance to
buy or refinance a home, holding steady after January's total of
21,896. Member companies received 24,097 applications, inching
down from 25,789 applications the same month a year ago.

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