ESTELAR PROPERTIES
WSJ - foreclosures fall, but…
First-quarter foreclosures declined 16% from a year earlier,
falling to their lowest quarterly total since 2007, according to
the latest report from market researcher RealtyTrac. The number
of foreclosure filings in the first quarter fell 2% sequentially.
Default notices, scheduled auctions and bank repossessions were
reported on 572,928 US properties in the latest quarter, the
lowest level since the fourth quarter of 2007, when 527,740
properties with foreclosure filings were reported. One in every
230 US housing units had a foreclosure filing during the quarter.
In March, there were 198,853 US properties in varying stages of
foreclosure, down 17% from a year earlier and 4% from the prior
month. RealtyTrac reported the decline in foreclosure activity
is primarily due to decreasing activity in states that use the
nonjudicial foreclosure process. Foreclosure filings in these 24
states and the District of Columbia, which represented more than
half of the nation's total during the quarter, fell 28% on the
year. States that primarily use the judicial foreclosure process
saw a 10% year-over-year increase in foreclosure activity in the
first quarter.
RealtyTrac Chief Executive Brandon Moore warned that the low
foreclosure numbers in the latest period do not indicate that the
massive amount of distressed properties built up over the past
few years has evaporated. "There are hairline cracks in the dam,
evident in the sizable foreclosure activity increases in judicial
foreclosure states over the past several months, along with an
increase in foreclosure starts in many judicial and non-judicial
states in March," Moore said in a statement. "The dam may not
burst in the next 30 to 45 days, but it will eventually burst,
and everyone downstream should be prepared for that to
happen--both in terms of new foreclosure activity and new short
sale activity." Completing the foreclosure process took an
average of 370 days in the first quarter, up from 348 days in the
prior quarter. However, RealtyTrac noted the average foreclosure
timeline fell in bellwether states like California, Colorado,
Utah, Massachusetts and Nevada.
Nevada's foreclosure activity fell 62% on the year and 26% from
the prior quarter, but the state again posted the nation's
highest foreclosure rate. In the latest period, one in every 95
Nevada housing units received a foreclosure filing. California
had the second highest rate, though the state's default activity
also decreased on a quarterly and annual basis. One in every 103
California housing units had a foreclosure filing in the first
quarter. The state also had the highest number of properties with
foreclosure filings. Arizona had the third highest foreclosure
rate, with one in every 106 housing units receiving a foreclosure
filing.
Jobless claims up
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 13,000
to a seasonally adjusted 380,000, the Labor Department said on
Thursday, defying economists' expectations for a drop to 355,000.
The four-week moving average for new claims, considered a better
measure of labor market trends, rose 4,250 to 368,500. Some
economists blamed the Easter holidays for the spike in claims and
expected applications to trend lower in coming weeks. "It's very
difficult to know the extent to which that's driven by seasonal
effects from Easter or not," said Eric Green, chief economist at
TD Securities in New York. The claims data comes in the wake of
Friday's disappointing employment report for March, which showed
the economy created 120,000 new jobs, the smallest amount since
October. Despite the rise in claims last week, both first-time
applications for unemployment aid and the four-week average held
below the 400,000 mark, implying steady job gains.
Olick - higher prices coming?
"A response to a recent RealtyCheck blog on home prices included
the following: 'Someone needs to explain to Ms. Olick what these
'price declines' really represent because they most assuredly do
not measure how much home values have changed. They simply
measure the statistical midpoint for all home sales. So in an
economy where people are buying smaller homes that number moves
down. That doesn't mean that every house lost that % value.'
Thanks, but no explanation necessary, as I believe I covered that
a while back. But I would like to elaborate a bit on this theme,
as we’re starting to see some changes mortgage applications;
specifically the average loan amount is rising, which might
suggest a turnaround in pricing, due to a change in the type of
homes being bought. The average size of a mortgage purchase
application increased 9% from December to the end of March, from
$214,500 to $233,300 in March, according to the Mortgage Bankers
Association. 'That points to underlying improvement in
borrowers’ appetite for mortgage credit,' notes Paul Diggle of
Capital Economics.
Just yesterday analysts at Goldman Sachs said both Toll Brothers
and Pulte Homes should benefit from more positive sentiment among
high end buyers. Their survey showed 63% of respondents expect
home prices to be either stable or rise, but 83% of respondents
with an annual income above $120,000 expect home prices to be
either stable or rise. That’s up from 75% six months ago. If
in fact the higher end buyers start getting back into the market,
or at least the move-up buyers, that will shift the volume to a
higher price range and consequently the median price, which gets
all that national attention. 72% of home sales in February were
of homes priced less than $250,000, according to the National
Association of Realtors. Of course, as I always say, all real
estate is local, as are all home prices, and let us not forget
that."
Producer prices flat
US producer prices were unchanged last month after advancing 0.4%
in February. Economists polled by Reuters had expected prices at
farms, factories and refineries to rise 0.3%. Wholesale prices
excluding volatile food and energy costs rose 0.3% after
February's 0.2% gain. That was a touch above economists'
expectations for a 0.2% advance and marked the fifth successive
month of increases in core PPI. Over one-third of the rise in
core PPI was attributed to prices for light motor trucks. Higher
costs for passenger cars, soaps and detergents also contributed
to the advance in core PPI. However, manufacturers have limited
scope to pass on these increased costs to consumers given the
still considerable slack in the economy. Overall producer prices
were held back by a 2.0% fall in gasoline, the largest decline
since October, after a 4.3% jump in February. That offset a 0.2%
rise in food prices, which halted three straight months of
declines. However, gasoline prices rose 7.5%, when seasonal
factors are excluded. In the 12 months to March, wholesale
prices increased 2.8%, the smallest increase since June 2010,
after advancing 3.3% in February. Outside food and energy,
producer prices were pushed up by light motor trucks prices,
which rebounded 0.7% after falling 0.4% in February. Passenger
car prices rose 0.8% after edging up 0.1% the prior month. The
increases likely reflected strong demand for automobiles. In the
12 months to March, core producer prices increased 2.9% after
rising 3.0% the previous month.
Loan demand improves
Loan demand in the banking industry, as well as residential and
commercial real estate activity, improved in most Federal Reserve
districts across the US, according to the latest Beige Book from
the Fed. The survey, which develops a consensus on economic
activity by interviewing industry contacts in every Federal
Reserve district, reported that the US economy continued to grow
at a modest pace from mid-February to late March. Residential
real estate activity also improved in most districts, with
Cleveland and San Francisco remaining outliers with lackluster
real estate activity. Nationwide construction of multifamily
housing units grew in most Fed districts, with most of the
construction centered around apartments and senior housing.
Meanwhile, home prices continued to fall in key areas like
Boston, New York and Minneapolis. Prices remained flat in San
Francisco. Mild winter weather during the first part of the year
delivered a slight boost in real estate activity in the areas of
Boston, Philadelphia and Kansas City.
Conditions in the financial services and banking industry
remained "stable" as demand for lending increased modestly. While
lending remained unchanged in St. Louis, it expanded in New York,
Philadelphia, Cleveland, Richmond, Chicago, Kansas City, Dallas
and San Francisco. "In general, the demand for commercial and
industrial loans remained steady, while several districts
reported an increase in commercial real estate lending activity,"
the Beige Book said. "The Philadelphia and Cleveland districts
reported increased lending for multifamily housing and health
care, and contacts in Richmond cited increased lending to small
business to finance inventory and capital expenditures."
Overall, residential real estate showed signs of modest
improvement and multifamily housing construction continued to
grow. On the banking side, credit quality increased and financial
firms noted improvement in loan demand.
WSJ - foreclosures fall, but…
First-quarter foreclosures declined 16% from a year earlier,
falling to their lowest quarterly total since 2007, according to
the latest report from market researcher RealtyTrac. The number
of foreclosure filings in the first quarter fell 2% sequentially.
Default notices, scheduled auctions and bank repossessions were
reported on 572,928 US properties in the latest quarter, the
lowest level since the fourth quarter of 2007, when 527,740
properties with foreclosure filings were reported. One in every
230 US housing units had a foreclosure filing during the quarter.
In March, there were 198,853 US properties in varying stages of
foreclosure, down 17% from a year earlier and 4% from the prior
month. RealtyTrac reported the decline in foreclosure activity
is primarily due to decreasing activity in states that use the
nonjudicial foreclosure process. Foreclosure filings in these 24
states and the District of Columbia, which represented more than
half of the nation's total during the quarter, fell 28% on the
year. States that primarily use the judicial foreclosure process
saw a 10% year-over-year increase in foreclosure activity in the
first quarter.
RealtyTrac Chief Executive Brandon Moore warned that the low
foreclosure numbers in the latest period do not indicate that the
massive amount of distressed properties built up over the past
few years has evaporated. "There are hairline cracks in the dam,
evident in the sizable foreclosure activity increases in judicial
foreclosure states over the past several months, along with an
increase in foreclosure starts in many judicial and non-judicial
states in March," Moore said in a statement. "The dam may not
burst in the next 30 to 45 days, but it will eventually burst,
and everyone downstream should be prepared for that to
happen--both in terms of new foreclosure activity and new short
sale activity." Completing the foreclosure process took an
average of 370 days in the first quarter, up from 348 days in the
prior quarter. However, RealtyTrac noted the average foreclosure
timeline fell in bellwether states like California, Colorado,
Utah, Massachusetts and Nevada.
Nevada's foreclosure activity fell 62% on the year and 26% from
the prior quarter, but the state again posted the nation's
highest foreclosure rate. In the latest period, one in every 95
Nevada housing units received a foreclosure filing. California
had the second highest rate, though the state's default activity
also decreased on a quarterly and annual basis. One in every 103
California housing units had a foreclosure filing in the first
quarter. The state also had the highest number of properties with
foreclosure filings. Arizona had the third highest foreclosure
rate, with one in every 106 housing units receiving a foreclosure
filing.
Jobless claims up
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 13,000
to a seasonally adjusted 380,000, the Labor Department said on
Thursday, defying economists' expectations for a drop to 355,000.
The four-week moving average for new claims, considered a better
measure of labor market trends, rose 4,250 to 368,500. Some
economists blamed the Easter holidays for the spike in claims and
expected applications to trend lower in coming weeks. "It's very
difficult to know the extent to which that's driven by seasonal
effects from Easter or not," said Eric Green, chief economist at
TD Securities in New York. The claims data comes in the wake of
Friday's disappointing employment report for March, which showed
the economy created 120,000 new jobs, the smallest amount since
October. Despite the rise in claims last week, both first-time
applications for unemployment aid and the four-week average held
below the 400,000 mark, implying steady job gains.
Olick - higher prices coming?
"A response to a recent RealtyCheck blog on home prices included
the following: 'Someone needs to explain to Ms. Olick what these
'price declines' really represent because they most assuredly do
not measure how much home values have changed. They simply
measure the statistical midpoint for all home sales. So in an
economy where people are buying smaller homes that number moves
down. That doesn't mean that every house lost that % value.'
Thanks, but no explanation necessary, as I believe I covered that
a while back. But I would like to elaborate a bit on this theme,
as we’re starting to see some changes mortgage applications;
specifically the average loan amount is rising, which might
suggest a turnaround in pricing, due to a change in the type of
homes being bought. The average size of a mortgage purchase
application increased 9% from December to the end of March, from
$214,500 to $233,300 in March, according to the Mortgage Bankers
Association. 'That points to underlying improvement in
borrowers’ appetite for mortgage credit,' notes Paul Diggle of
Capital Economics.
Just yesterday analysts at Goldman Sachs said both Toll Brothers
and Pulte Homes should benefit from more positive sentiment among
high end buyers. Their survey showed 63% of respondents expect
home prices to be either stable or rise, but 83% of respondents
with an annual income above $120,000 expect home prices to be
either stable or rise. That’s up from 75% six months ago. If
in fact the higher end buyers start getting back into the market,
or at least the move-up buyers, that will shift the volume to a
higher price range and consequently the median price, which gets
all that national attention. 72% of home sales in February were
of homes priced less than $250,000, according to the National
Association of Realtors. Of course, as I always say, all real
estate is local, as are all home prices, and let us not forget
that."
Producer prices flat
US producer prices were unchanged last month after advancing 0.4%
in February. Economists polled by Reuters had expected prices at
farms, factories and refineries to rise 0.3%. Wholesale prices
excluding volatile food and energy costs rose 0.3% after
February's 0.2% gain. That was a touch above economists'
expectations for a 0.2% advance and marked the fifth successive
month of increases in core PPI. Over one-third of the rise in
core PPI was attributed to prices for light motor trucks. Higher
costs for passenger cars, soaps and detergents also contributed
to the advance in core PPI. However, manufacturers have limited
scope to pass on these increased costs to consumers given the
still considerable slack in the economy. Overall producer prices
were held back by a 2.0% fall in gasoline, the largest decline
since October, after a 4.3% jump in February. That offset a 0.2%
rise in food prices, which halted three straight months of
declines. However, gasoline prices rose 7.5%, when seasonal
factors are excluded. In the 12 months to March, wholesale
prices increased 2.8%, the smallest increase since June 2010,
after advancing 3.3% in February. Outside food and energy,
producer prices were pushed up by light motor trucks prices,
which rebounded 0.7% after falling 0.4% in February. Passenger
car prices rose 0.8% after edging up 0.1% the prior month. The
increases likely reflected strong demand for automobiles. In the
12 months to March, core producer prices increased 2.9% after
rising 3.0% the previous month.
Loan demand improves
Loan demand in the banking industry, as well as residential and
commercial real estate activity, improved in most Federal Reserve
districts across the US, according to the latest Beige Book from
the Fed. The survey, which develops a consensus on economic
activity by interviewing industry contacts in every Federal
Reserve district, reported that the US economy continued to grow
at a modest pace from mid-February to late March. Residential
real estate activity also improved in most districts, with
Cleveland and San Francisco remaining outliers with lackluster
real estate activity. Nationwide construction of multifamily
housing units grew in most Fed districts, with most of the
construction centered around apartments and senior housing.
Meanwhile, home prices continued to fall in key areas like
Boston, New York and Minneapolis. Prices remained flat in San
Francisco. Mild winter weather during the first part of the year
delivered a slight boost in real estate activity in the areas of
Boston, Philadelphia and Kansas City.
Conditions in the financial services and banking industry
remained "stable" as demand for lending increased modestly. While
lending remained unchanged in St. Louis, it expanded in New York,
Philadelphia, Cleveland, Richmond, Chicago, Kansas City, Dallas
and San Francisco. "In general, the demand for commercial and
industrial loans remained steady, while several districts
reported an increase in commercial real estate lending activity,"
the Beige Book said. "The Philadelphia and Cleveland districts
reported increased lending for multifamily housing and health
care, and contacts in Richmond cited increased lending to small
business to finance inventory and capital expenditures."
Overall, residential real estate showed signs of modest
improvement and multifamily housing construction continued to
grow. On the banking side, credit quality increased and financial
firms noted improvement in loan demand.
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